Florida

   Holding 27 Electoral votes, Florida definitely comes in as one of this election’s important battleground states. In eight out of the previous ten elections, Florida has voted Republican. Florida has proved itself to be a close state in the past few years, and it’s also been very important. In four of the last five elections, the way Florida voted is the way the election went (the exception was in 1992 when Bush, Sr. won Florida but lost the election to Clinton). In 2000, the election was excruciatingly close – George Bush winning by only 537 votes! And while no one wants it again, judging by Florida’s history another possible issue this year around is ballot discrepancies and potential recounts. It seems highly unlikely that whoever will win this election can do it without winning Florida. Because of its many electoral votes and close election history, this state has the potential to possibly be the deciding state in this election.

   As of October 28th, [|MSNBC] warns to watch out for potential problems on Election Day. According to them, the upper of 2,000 Tampa Bay voters have been put on Florida’s “not math” list of people who have “unverified identities.” Because of being on this list, their votes in the election next week might not count unless they quickly resolve the issues with discrepancies between their voter registration forms and driver license or Social Security numbers in government databases. Those people, only a part of the “more than 12,000 statewide,” must instead cast provisional ballots.
 * **Year ** || **Candidates ** || **Percentage ** || **Popular Vote ** || **Margin of Victory ** ||
 * <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'">2004 <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'"> ||  ||   ||   ||   ||
 * || <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: rgb(255,3,0); FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'">George W. Bush (R) <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'"> || <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: rgb(255,3,0); FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'">52.5 <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'"> || <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: rgb(255,3,0); FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'">3,964,522 <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'"> || <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: rgb(255,3,0); FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'">380,978 <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'"> ||
 * || <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'">John Kerry (D) <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'"> || <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'">47.5 <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'"> || <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'">3,583,544 <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'"> ||  ||
 * <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'">2000 <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'"> ||  ||   ||   ||   ||
 * || <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: rgb(237,42,33); FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'">George W. Bush (R) <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'"> || <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: rgb(237,42,33); FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'">50.004 <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'"> || <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: rgb(237,42,33); FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'">2,912,790 <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'"> || <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: rgb(237,42,33); FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'">537 <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'"> ||
 * || <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'">Al Gore (D) <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'"> || <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'">49.996 <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'"> || <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'">2,912,253 <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'"> ||  ||
 * <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'">1996 <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'"> ||  ||   ||   ||   ||
 * || <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: rgb(10,15,235); FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'">Bill Clinton (D) <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'"> || <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: rgb(10,15,235); FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'">53.2 <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'"> || <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: rgb(10,15,235); FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'">2,546,870 <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'"> || <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: rgb(10,15,235); FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'">302,334 <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'"> ||
 * || <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'">Bob Dole (R) <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'"> || <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'">46.8 <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'"> || <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'">2,244,536 <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'"> ||  ||
 * <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'">1992 <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'"> ||  ||   ||   ||   ||
 * || <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: rgb(6,14,244); FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'">Bill Clinton (D) <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'"> || <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: rgb(6,14,244); FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'">48.8 <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'"> || <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: rgb(6,14,244); FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'">2,072,698 <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'"> ||  <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: rgb(6,14,244); FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'">100,612 <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'">    ||
 * || <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'">George H.W Bush (R) <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'"> || <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'">51.2 <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'"> || <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'">2,173,310 <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'"> ||  ||
 * <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'">1988 <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'"> ||  ||   ||   ||   ||
 * || <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: rgb(239,6,6); FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'">George H.W. Bush (R) <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'"> || <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: rgb(239,6,6); FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'">61.2 <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'"> || <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: rgb(239,6,6); FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'">2,617,775 <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'"> || <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: rgb(239,6,6); FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'">961,074 <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'"> ||
 * || <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'">Michael Dukakis (D) <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'"> || <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'">38.8 <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'"> || <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'">1,656,701 <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'"> ||  ||

In the 2006 estimate population, there were 18,089,888 people living in Florida. The e stimate population of people in Florida of voting age in the same year was 14,073,932.

<span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">The general consensus is that there’s a slim to none chance that John McCain will be able to win the white house unless he wins Florida; Barack Obama could possibly claim the presidency without this state, but it would be quite a feat. Since the initial polls McCain has had a relatively comfortable lead (as high as 4 or 5 points) but recently the polls have been showing a much tighter race. One Florida resident states: “I don’t think John McCain can win the white house if he doesn’t win FL.” Another says “[McCain] has every opportunity to win the state.” <span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"> At the beginning of the election hype, Florida Democrats were warned to follow primary rules, and ended up paying a steep price for a decision in regards to their presidential primary. Given this warning, Florida stood strong deciding to still hold their early primary Instead of holding it when they should have, they held it on January 29th, which was a week earlier than their party rules allow. They were then penalized by the Democratic National Committee, taking away Florida’s presidential nominating delegates. ( [|NPR] and [|Wall Street] )
 * <span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">Registered Republicans || <span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">3,954,884 ||
 * <span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">Registered Democrats || <span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">4,453,008 ||
 * <span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">Registered Minor parties || <span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">347,519 ||
 * <span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">Registered, no party || <span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">1,988,679 ||
 * <span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">Total Registered || <span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">10,744,090 ||

McCain began this election with a slight lead over Obama in Florida. For a consistent few weeks the polls kept showing McCain a bit ahead with polls such as McCain attracting 49% of the vote, and Obama earning 44%. McCain has had an advantage similar to this in eight of ten polls in Florida thus far **as of when??**, but this margin was recently his biggest lead since June. With McCain’s modest lead nationally and his five point win in Florida, his margin matches that of President Bush’s victory in Florida four years previous. While history is not on his side, Obama is not giving up just yet. According to one “Today Show” reporter, Obama has spent “8 million dollars on TV adds” which is the “largest political organization this state has ever seen.” This includes 50 field offices, and 350 paid staff members alone, not counting any volunteers. **how does this amount of money compare to what he's spent on other states?**

In past elections, Hispanics have leaned very strongly to the right, but polls show that recently many more Hispanics have been registering for the Democratic Party. According to “Today Show” reporter Chuck Todd, were Cubans and Hispanics to be divided, Cubans still lean heavily republican, while it is other Hispanics who are registering Democratic or remaining undecided. So among Hispanics, McCain doesn’t have as much of a lead as he used to. Chuck Todd also shows Mason-Dixon polls that showed Obama with 47% and McCain with 45%; this is a large turnaround for Obama and does not reflect previous polls. Todd continues to display that Obama leads by 6% with undecided voters, but McCain gains a four point lead with seniors (65 and over.) Another reporter contributes that the Democrats have registered somewhere around 130,000 new voters. The economy is an incredibly important issue for Florida because it has cost Florida many jobs without much of a rebound in sight. This decline causes fewer tourists to visit the Sunshine State, which takes away a large amount of Florida’s funding, putting them in an even closer squeeze. <span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"> Click [|here] for up-to-date McCain vs. Obama polls and graph <span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"> Florida Governor, Republican Charlie Crist avidly supports John McCain saying, “We need someone experienced at the wheel. McCain has been around for a long time.” Crist says that it “comes down to judgment” and that McCain is a “seasoned guy”. He says that the government is indisputably the biggest issue of this election. While Obama is closing the gap, Crist remains a confident McCain supporter. He points out that Florida has a large military population and says that McCain will defeat Obama with his experience and judgment. He reminds America that this election is “about turnout…not registrants alone.” As Obama’s polls have been rising to the point where people are saying he could win Florida, even Crist has lost some confidence in McCain. As of October 12, the [|Miami Herald] published that Crist has stated his position that during the last few weeks of the election, he will be focusing more on his own states weak economy, rather than campaigning for the Arizona senator. <span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 115%; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">Reporters on the show continued to talk to other residents asking “Could there be more issues about ballots in Florida?” <span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; LINE-HEIGHT: 115%; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">There have been a lot of ballot controversies in the past years; in 2000, it took a month to finally conclude that George W. Bush had won the election. In 2004, the Republicans had an easy win, Bush overtaking Democrat John Kerry with 52% to his 47%. <span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 115%; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">As of Tuesday, November 11th, the results of a <span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: purple; LINE-HEIGHT: 115%; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">[|County Circuit Court Judge] <span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 115%; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"> election on Presidential Election Day were still undecided. This election was between Tegan Slaton and Mary Vanden Brook, and on this Tuesday they were still tied. Around 30 people – everyone from staff at the Supervisor of Elections Office to poll volunteers – were up late that evening working on manually recounting the votes trying to break the tie between the two candidates. Events like this leave people wondering how this year’s presidential election will go. <span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 115%; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">

Florida, like some other states, has [|early voting] available for those who know their decision and choose to participate. Early voting begins fifteen prior to the election, and it ends just two days before Election Day. Early voters use the same equipment that voters use on Election Day. Early voting is available for 8 hours each day and is only in designated early voting sites (which are decided 30 days before an election.) To be valid for early voting, registered voters must only bring photo identification and a form of signature identification. <span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 115%; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">The Election in Florida ended up being impressively Democratic, going to Obama. He <span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 115%; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi">gained a total of 4,142,174 in comparison to McCain’s 3,938,166. This is a large margin of a 204,008 vote difference. These voting numbers compute to 50.9% to 48.4%; some very small percentage points went to candidates Baldwin, Barr, and Nader. I think Obama’s campaigning in Florida paid off a lot and won him the state. Also, I think the non-Cuban Hispanic vote helped Obama in his polls. Also the lack of Bradley effect because everyone voted the way they said they would with Obama wining by a larger margin than many Floridians would have expected. <span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 115%; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">

<span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'"> http://election.dos.state.fl.us/voting/early.shtml <span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'">http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/12000.html <span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'">http://election.dos.state.fl.us/NVRA/affiliation.asp <span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'">http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/florida/election_2008_florida_presidential_election <span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'">[|http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004//pages/results/states/FL/index.html] <span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Florida,_2000 <span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'">http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe1996/presge.htm <span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'">http://www.presidentelect.org/e1992.html#state <span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'">http://www.presidentelect.org/e1988.html#state <span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'">http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/fl/florida_mccain_vs_obama-418.html <span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'">“The Today Show” “Battleground Florida” September 23