Michigan

= **Michigan originally was thought to be a "swing state", but recently McCain has pulled out of it. Below is a summary of McCain's pull out and, below that, is the original analysis of why it was a swing state.** = 
 * Michigan: A Blue State in 2008? **

After the recent economic turmoil, the McCain campaign has politically backed out of Michigan. This news was announced on October 2 – coinciding with the vice-presidential debate. Economic worry was already the main issue facing Michigan voters because of the failing auto industry and now, the economy is a top concern for even more voters. As the candidates keep mentioning, the problems on Wall Street really are affecting Main Street. Obama is generally thought to be better for solving the economic crises and the economy really is the top concern of Michigan voters now. McCain has lessened his spending in Michigan and plans to end Michigan-specific ads. A large number of his staff has also been removed and brought to more critical and perhaps winnable states. These could include Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Maine, Florida, Indiana and Ohio. The McCain campaign naturally has said that they will watch the sate and, if it starts to swing back in their favor, they will reinvigorate their campaign there. The Obama camp has also said they will continue to work on voter registration and campaigning in Michigan. Losing Michigan, of course, leaves a narrower path for McCain to win the White House.

http://detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081003/POLITICS01/810030403 http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/03/us/politics/03michigan.html?_r=1&scp=2&sq=mccain%20michigan&st=cse&oref=slogin

Although Michigan has voted democratically for the past four elections, each time except for the reelection of Bill Clinton the margin has been diminishing and, with the worry about the economy – primarily unemployment – Michigan could vote either way in the upcoming presidential election. These means there are 17 electoral votes up for grabs on November 4th in this state. || ||  ** Democratic ** ||  ** Republican ** ||  ** Margin of Democratic Win ** || ||  Bill Clinton - 1, 871, 182 votes ||  George H. W. Bush- 1, 554,940 votes ||  316,242 votes || ||  Bill Clinton - 1, 989, 653 votes ||  Bob Dole – 1, 481, 212 ||  508,441 votes || ||  Al Gore - 2, 170, 418 ||  George W. Bush – 1, 953, 139 ||  217,279 votes || ||  John Kerry – 2,479,183 ||  George W. Bush – 2, 313, 746 || <span style="font-family: Verdana,Geneva,sans-serif"> 165,437 votes || <span style="font-family: Verdana,Geneva,sans-serif"> This data shows that Michigan has been leaning less Democratic in the past few years, but, that doesn’t in of itself mean that this year, the election will turn Republican. In the 1996 election the Democratic candidate – Bill Clinton – won by a significantly larger margin than in 1992, but that in of itself makes sense because he was a president who people were happy with and, in general, reelection is easier. The number of votes John Kerry received also shrank in 2004, and while this could partially be explained by George W. Bush running for reelection, the lessening of the Democratic nature of the state also accounts for some of votes shifting from the Democratic to Republican party.
 * <span style="font-family: Verdana,Geneva,sans-serif">
 * <span style="font-family: Verdana,Geneva,sans-serif"> ** Year **
 * <span style="font-family: Verdana,Geneva,sans-serif">** 1992 **
 * <span style="font-family: Verdana,Geneva,sans-serif">** 1996 **
 * <span style="font-family: Verdana,Geneva,sans-serif">** 2000 **
 * <span style="font-family: Verdana,Geneva,sans-serif">** 2004 **

The anxiety over unemployment is a large factor that could play greatly into the election as well. The auto industry, based in Detroit, has been steadily deteriorating and many people are most worried about their jobs, primarily not losing them or, if it’s too late for that, finding new ones. The unemployment rate is the worst in the country at 8.5%. According to national polls, most Americans think Obama would be more beneficial for the economy, perhaps because McCain sounds a lot like Bush in these issues.

The Governor is Jennifer Granholm, a Democrat, which indicates that a Democrat (i.e. Obama) has a chance of winning the upcoming presidential election. The percent of African Americans is slightly higher than in the rest of the country at 14.3% (national percentage is 12.8%), so if all of the blacks turn out to vote, this could possibly help Barack Obama.

Below is a “swing county” that could play greatly in this “swing state.” A “swing county” within the swing state of Michigan, Oakland County includes Detroit in the south and farmlands in the North. Oakland County residents seem to agree with Michigan citizens – and Americans in general – in that the economy is a top concern. Unemployment is, just like the rest of Michigan, a big issue.

Oakland County used to be solidly Republican and incredibly well off, voting Republican. Even though all the major office holders are Republican in Oakland County, it could swing to the left because of the pressing economic worry and the economic and racial diversity that’s developed. In the past presidential elections, Oakland County has narrowly voted for the Democratic candidate. The population is 1,206,089. (To put that into perspective: approximately 5,000,000 Michiganders voted in the 2004 election – in the unlikely event that all of the Oakland County citizens vote, they would total almost ¼ of the voting public in Michigan.)

Both candidates have visited both Oakland County and Michigan in general extensively, showing the “swing” nature of the entire state. There are many factors affecting the election – varying from unemployment to percentage of black voters - and we will most likely have to wait until Election Day to see what will happen in this battleground state.

Below is a brief summary of Michigan over the course of the election. On November Michigan, as expected, voted firmly for Barack Obama.

<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 200%; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif""> Michigan was initially a key swing state, with both Obama and McCain vying for its 17 electoral votes. With the auto industry so important in Michigan, though, the economy was the top concern even before the meltdowns began. After the meltdowns, though, Michigan began to [|dramatically favor Obama]. [|McCain pulled out of Michigan –] cutting all spending on advertising, touring, etc. in the state – shortly after the economy sunk. This move, while it may have helped McCain not waste any money in a state he was pretty sure he couldn’t win, also certainly didn’t give him any chance of winning Michigan. The conservative Michigan voters prior to McCain’s pull-out had actually been fairly excited about McCain and the chance of Michigan swinging red in 2008. After McCain gave up on the state, though, there was no chance of it voting for anyone but Barack Obama.

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