Ohio


 * __FINAL RESULTS: Ohio went to Obama on Nov. 4th, by about the same margin as predicted (approximately 5 pts.)__**

Ohio holds 20 electoral votes, and because it is known to swing back and forth between political parties, it is a prime target for both candidates as they attempt to win over any independents and undecideds. Ohio is viewed as a particularly vital prize because in the past five elections, the winner of Ohio has also been the winner of the presidency; therefore the state can perhaps be viewed as a gauge for judging the sentiments of the nation as a whole.

Polls tended to favor John McCain for the earlier portion of the race - he led by about 3 to 4 points for a good time period, a healthy lead for a battleground state. But following the economic meltdown on September 13th (collapse of stock market and corporations such as Lehman Bros.), Barack Obama has gained ground. However, the divisiveness in the state reflects the turmoil taking place throughout the US right now.

As of October 15, Obama led by a little over 4 points As of October 20, McCain narrowed that lead to a little over 1 point. October 23 shows him expanding a little again, with a lead of about 2.5 points As of October 26, Obama has again widened his lead to 3 to 5 points. ~ [|Pollster] ~ [|RealClearPolitics]

In past elections, Ohio has been known to swap allegiances, as shown by the table below: || 51.0  ||  2,796,147  ||  136,483  || || John Kerry (D) || 48.5 || 2,659,664 || || ||   50.0    ||    2,351,209    ||    165,019    ||  || Al Gore (D) || 46.5 || 2,186,190 || || || 47.5  ||  2,148,222  ||  288,339  || ||  40.2  ||  1,984,942  ||  90,059  || || George H.W Bush (R) || 38.3 || 1,894,310 || || || 55.0  ||  2,416,549  ||  476,920  || || Michael Dukakis (D) || 41.0 || 1,939,629 || ||
 * ** Year ** || ** Candidates ** || ** Percentage ** || ** Popular Vote ** || ** Margin of Victory ** ||
 * 2004* || || || || ||
 * || George W. Bush (R)
 * 2000 || || || || ||
 * ||   George W. Bush (R)
 * 1996 || || || || ||
 * || Bill Clinton (D)
 * || Bob Dole (R) || 41.0 || 1,859,883 || ||
 * 1992 || || || || ||
 * || Bill Clinton (D)
 * 1988 || || || || ||
 * || George H.W. Bush (R)


 * click to see a breakdown of the '04 election by county

__**The Ohio Voting Body**__

Ohio has a unique registration process; voters do not affiliate themselves with one particular political party. Instead, they simply declare a partisanship when participating in the primaries: so an Ohioan can vote in the Democratic primaries in one year, and the Republican primary in another. As a result, there is no official number of registered Democrats and Republicans. During the [|2008 primaries], John McCain swept a clean victory over his other “red” opponents; the race was closer on the Democrat side, but Hillary Clinton still beat Barack Obama by about 10%.

There has been an increase in the number of registered voters in the state this election season - an estimated 485,000 people have signed up. Early voting began on September 30th and ended on October 7th - the day of the second debate between Obama and McCain. Obama fervently encouraged Ohioans to vote early while he was still up in the polls (at the time he was up an average of 3 points). Obama is also doing extensive physical campaigning in the state, visiting cities such as Cincinatti and Athens. In addition, there are many pro-Obama activist groups working in Ohio; for example, Bruce Springsteen held a benefit concert for the cause on October 5th, which was very popular and publicized. McCain is focussing somewhat less energy on the state, visiting it once in the month of October, plus one additional visit from running mate Sarah Palin.

Ohio's current governor, Democrat [|Ted Strickland], is in fact quite popular in the state, causing some to consider him a viable candidate for Barack Obama's running mate (a role that was ultimately given to Delaware Sen. Joe Biden). Nonetheless, he has backed Obama, speaking at the 2008 Democratic National Convention where he emphasized John McCain's similarities to George W. Bush. Strickland's endorsement may well be one of many factors influencing the vote in Ohio, which seems to be leaning more and more heavily towards Obama as Election Day nears.

A prominent reason behind Ohio’s touchiness this election season is its [|rural, working class counties]– cities such as Cleveland have, like most metropolitan areas, historically favored the Democrats. But outside of these large cities, particularly in the southeast region, there exists more rural, working class towns, which harbor conservative social values and sometimes racism. Many citizens of these small counties say that they know a good deal of their neighbors will not vote for a black man to be their president. **what percent of ohio is white/black/hispanic, etc?** Some suggest that even if Obama were white, his views would be perceived in this region as too “radically liberal” to be accepted.

Besides race, other issues tend to revolve around the [|Great Lakes], which are in desperate need of restorative attention. Obama has won some favor among supporters of this cause, as he has made promises to devote a good amount of time on cleaning up the Lakes. Many say that while Obama is not saying anything that people such as George W. Bush himself haven’t already said, he actually does have the money to back up his claims. There have also been anti-McCain rumors purporting that the Republican nominee wishes to move Great Lakes water to his own homestate of Arizona (he has deemed this statement false).

Another big issue for Ohioans is that of gun control - many still remember Obama's infamous [|"clinging to their guns" quote] describing rural Pennsylvania towns, and fear that Obama would try to take away their rights to bear arms. Obama is stressing that he would not to do so.

In Cleveland’s largest newspaper, the [|Plain Dealer], there has have been quotations attributed to Ohioan delegates who describe McCain’s speeches as “inspirational” in their attempts to reach across party lines for the betterment of the nation. It is important to note that whatever the popular vote, technically it is these people, the delegates who ultimately decide the fates of the candidates in terms of taking Ohio.

As the race enters its final months, both candidates seem to be viewing Ohio as the most important electoral prize, or at least the one that is most up in the air - both are spending more in the state than they are in any other, [|Obama $2.2 million and McCain $1.7 million]. Obama is outspending McCain in general,spending $6 million dollars more on advertising in the first week of October. He also aired a [|30-minute advertisement] days before the election, which featured an endorsement from Ohio Governor Tom Strickland and a section which focused on an elderly Ohioan couple attempting to make ends meet as they struggle in the midst of their so-called "retirement."