New+Hampshire


 * New Hampshire **

Although New Hampshire only offers 4 electoral votes, every vote does count in the upcoming election and both the McCain and Obama campaigns are campaigning hard. While current polls (as of October10th) show Obama ahead (52.0 to 41.3%, taking the average of different polls), many New Hampshire voters consider themselves “undecided.” Looking at the numbers of registered voters, it’s clear why New Hampshire is considered a swing state. Out of the 863, 542 registered voters, 263, 217 are Democrats, 268,108 Republicans, and 332, 127 Independents. So, if a majority of the independent voters swing to one side, they will decide the election in New Hampshire.


 * what will it take to make the undecided voters swing to one side? -chase

In the past two elections, New Hampshire has swung between George Bush and John Kerry - voting for Bush in 2000 and then for Kerry in 2004.


 * ** year ** || ** winner ** ||  || ** margin ** ||
 * 2004 || John Kerry – 340, 511 votes || George W. Bush – 331, 237 votes || 9274 votes ||
 * 2000 || George W. Bush – 275, 559 votes || John Kerry – 266, 348 votes || 9175 votes ||

Only .7% of the New Hampshire population is black, so the black appeal that Obama has will most likely not have an effect. The economy, as in the rest of the country, seems to be the major issue, so with the current economic problems, it's likely that Obama will pick up more votes. In fact, Obama has been leading for most of the time in New Hamsphire and, with the recent economic crisis, I think it's likely that Obama will win. Below is a graph from pollster; the point where Obama's lead picks up speed corresponds to the stock market crash. I can't paste the picture in for some reason, but the graph is below at pollster - and it'll be updated then too :)

http://www.pollster.com/polls/nh/08-nh-pres-ge-mvo.php

According to current polls, on October 16, if Obama and McCain win all of the states they are currently leading in, and McCain wins all of the swing states, then Obama will win by 3 electoral votes. This makes little bitty New Hampshire, worth only 4 electoral votes, suddenly incredibly important.

In New Hampshire, Obama's lead continues to grow. Recent polls, October 20, show him leading by just about 7%. Although this does leave New Hampshire a lighter shade of blue than the rest of New England on the maps, it will most likely be voting democratically in the upcoming election.

Despite the heavy democratic lead, though, McCain continues to fight for New Hampshire. He spoke at Goffstown, among other towns, on October 22nd. As of November 2nd, a mere two days before the election, Obama is in the lead by a solid 11 points, according to pollster.com. Currently a "dark blue" state, something drastic would have to happen for McCain to win New Hampshire.

There is no early voting available in New Hampshire - so all of the votes will happen on the actual election day, November 4th.

On November 4th Obama triumphed in New Hampshire. Below is a brief summary of New Hampshire over the course of the election and its switch from being a swing state to being clearly blue.

 Following the pattern of the general election, New Hampshire was a bit iffy at first and it was unclear whether it would go to Obama or McCain. New Hampshire supported Hillary Clinton in the primaries (after her tears, remember?) and, though slow to lean to the fully Obama camp, eventually became a hardcore blue state. On Election Day Obama clearly won New Hampshire: [|54% to 45%.] This shift, like the shift in the rest of the country, has a lot do with the economic situation. New Hampshire citizens, and American citizens in general, are anxious about the economy and following the meltdowns they began flocking to the Obama camp. The economy started melting down on [|September 14, 2008], with the crash of the Lehman brothers and, shortly thereafter, the polls in New Hampshire starting favoring Obama immensely. This shift, of course, wasn’t just in New Hampshire – it happened across the country – with key states such as New Hampshire, Michigan, and others all swinging toward Obama. The [|graph for New Hampshire from pollster] shows the split beginning in mid September – and never slowing down.