Virginia



Coming as a surprise to many, the state of Virginia, which holds 13 electoral votes, has quickly become one of the most important states in the 2008 presidential election. After winning 63.7% of the vote in the Democratic primary in Virginia as opposed to Hillary Clinton’s 35.5%, it became clear that Obama had a legitimate chance at Virginia in the general election. Despite having voted solidly Republican in the past 10 elections and generally being considered a “lock” for the Republican Party, John McCain and Obama are polling extraordinarily close in Virginia. This is due mostly to the proximity of Northern Virginia to the highly liberal Washington DC and the concentration of African-American voters in southern Virginia. In response to Virginia hanging in the balance, legitimate campaigning by both parties is taking place more and more often as the election approaches.


 * Year || Democratic Votes || Republican Votes || Margin of Victory || National Election Won By ||
 * 2004 || Kerry/Edwards- 1,454,752- 46% || Bush/Cheney- 1,716,959 -54% || 262,207 || Bush ||
 * 2000 || Gore/Lieberman- 1,217,290- 44.4% || Bush/ Cheney- 1,437,490 -44% || 220,200 || Bush ||
 * 1996 || Clinton/Gore- 1,091,060- 45.15% || Dole/Kemp- 1,138,350- 47.10% || 47,290 || Clinton ||

The newly found success of the Democratic party in Virginia can be attributed to two main factors: the African American vote and the influence of highly popular former Democratic [|Governor Mark Warner]. However, the same questions are as prevalent in Virginia as they are in other southern States with large African-American populations. Will the African-American vote actually become a factor in Virginia or will the African-American turnout be as dismal as it was in years past? [|African-Americans account for 19.9%] of the population of Virginia and most nationwide polls find that somewhere between 90 and 95% of African-Americans support Barack Obama for President.

With the democratic nomination of Obama, a biracial man who associates mostly with his African heritage, many deduce that African-American voter turnout will reach all time highs. However, many Republican strategists state that McCain, a former Prisoner of War and Vietnam veteran, will still be able to hold a state in which Military veterans make up almost 15% of the population. 

The influence of former governor and current candidate for United States Senate in Virginia, Mark Warner, is yet to be seen. Warner is highly popular in Virginia and has helped to unify their Democratic base. Warner is expected to win the Virginia senate seat in a resounding victory after leaving office with an outstanding approval rating above 70%. After being credited for saving Virginia’s massive finance problems, Warner has the rare opportunity of being able to greatly influence voters in Virginia through his endorsement of Barack Obama.

All of this said, Virginia has voted resoundingly Republican for the last 10 elections, one of the few states to vote with the GOP in each election for the past 40 years. Virginia last voted Democrat in the 1964 election, when they elected Lyndon B. Johnson.

To my count, Obama has around [|70 Campaign Offices] in Virginia while McCain has around [|20 Campaign Offices].

Unfortunately, hindering further analysis of voters in Virginia by party, there are no voter registration numbers for Virginia. Virginia voters must register 29 days before the general election and the primary in order to be eligible to vote.


 * Figure 1: Results of 2000 and 2004 Presidential elections in Virginia**

The gap in Virginia has been narrowed, but not by a significant margin. One of Barack Obama’s biggest talking points in this election has been the past failures of President Bush; however, Virginia holds a 35% approval rating of the president, over 10 percentage points higher than the rest of the country. As a concession to his opponent’s case in Virginia, McCain has admitted that the Virginia race is one of utmost importance to the 2008 election, further conceding that Virginia is not a Republican lock in 2008.


 * Figure 2: Population density of African- Americans in the state of Virginia.**


 * Figure 3: Breakdown of Democratic Margin of Victory or Defeat by region in Virginia**

Small town and rural populations were highly republican concentrated in Virginia in the last presidential election. In fact, the only population of Virginia that went decidedly for John Kerry was the Northern Virginia or Washington DC area. However, the southern area has a much higher concentration of African-American voters, leading many to believe that Senator Obama will be able to carry both the northern portion of the state and many predominantly black counties in the southern portion of Virginia.



On Monday October 13th, John McCain [|held a rally in Virginia Beach, Virginia]. During this rally McCain stated "We've got them where we want them" and that he would "kick Obama's butt" in the upcoming debate. Either McCain still feels good about his chances in the election or is making a last attempt to rally his party base. Obama also held a [|rally in Richmond on Wednesday, October 22nd]. Current Virginia Governor Tim Kaine played an integral role in [|Obama's recent 30-minute infomercial]. It is becoming clear that neither candidate desires to back down in this key swing state.

According to polls from realclearpolitics.com, as of Sunday, October 26th, [|Barack Obama holds a 51.5 to 44.5] edge in Virginia and according to polls from pollster.com, Obama holds a [|51.8 to 43.7 lead in Virginia]. This has officially changed Virginia from what these sites consider a "Toss-up State" to a "Leaning Obama State." Whether these two polls, which are both comprised of a compilation of different polls, are accurate, is still a lingering question.

Below is a helpful link to CNN's daily updated polls and analysis of Virginia as a battleground state.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/map/polling/index.html

The result of the Virginia Election was very close to the way the polls pointed and the way I predicted based on analysis and polling. Virginia was won by Barack Obama by a Margin of 53% to 47%, Obama garnering 1,958,370 votes while McCain received 1,726,053 votes. Third party candidates played little to no role in this election. As predicted, urban centers with high African-American populations and counties in Northern Virginia voted overwhelmingly for Obama.

 <http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/06/05/virginia-a-possible-swing-state-in-2008/> <http://southernstudies.org/facingsouth/2008/09/election-2008-southern-swing-state.asp> <http://content.scholastic.com/browse/article.jsp?id=3750307> <http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/09/15/fox-newsrasmussen-report-race-remains-close-in-swing-states/> <http://www.surveyusa.com/50State2006/50StateGovernor060214Net.htm> <http://www.arlingtonva.us/DEPARTMENTS/VoterRegistration/VoterRegistrationFAQ.aspx> <http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/10/11/AR2007101102407.html> http://pollster.com/ http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/va/virginia_mccain_vs_obama-551.html

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